The listing reached its peak immediately, has OMNI missed the best opportunity to go public?

Last night, the Ethereum interoperability protocol Omni Network token OMNI was listed on Binance, and the opening price hit $55.5, and then fell back to $38.61. However, as of writing, the price of OMNI fell to $25.13, a drop of more than 50%. The Solana ecological real estate transaction protocol Parcl token PRCL, which was launched on OKX two days ago, opened at $1.04, and then fell back to $0.8. As of writing, the price of PRCL is $0.45, a 24-hour drop of more than 30%.

In addition, there is the Wormhole token W, which was launched on major CEXs on April 3. The opening price exceeded US$1.8, and the price has performed poorly since then. As of the time of writing, the price is US$0.56, which is down more than 60% from the listing high; the Solana ecosystem NFT trading platform Tenser token TNSR, which was launched on the mainstream CEX on April 8, opened at a price of over US$2.6. As of the time of writing, the price is US$0.84, down more than 60% from the listing high; the modular blockchain platform Saga token SAGA, which was launched on Binance on April 9, rose to a high of US$7.89 on the opening day, and fell to US$3.4 as of the time of writing, down more than 50% from the listing high.

These newly launched tokens in April are facing the embarrassing situation of reaching their highs as soon as they are launched. On the one hand, there are factors such as the instability of the market and the depletion of liquidity in April. On the other hand, the airdrop plans of these projects cover a wide range. When launching tokens at a time when the market is not good, they will face the situation of airdrops and market crashes.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote in his blog post "Heatwave" that from mid-April to early May, the US taxation will withdraw market liquidity, and the market will be extremely weak as the Federal Reserve continues to shrink its balance sheet. Hayes said that the tax deadline on April 15 will withdraw a large amount of funds from the system. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is still continuing to shrink its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. In addition, the expected halving of Bitcoin's block reward on April 20 may lead to short-term overselling, which will bring huge pressure to the market.

The current market performance is indeed as Hayes said, so there is an argument that the window to launch tokens and see them immediately achieve 2-3 times growth is currently closed because there is not enough liquidity in the market to absorb these new coins. The airdrop plans of new coins such as W and PRCL are too "generous" and bring enough selling pressure after they are launched. In addition, the market consensus has not yet been reached. Users who received airdrops want to cash out immediately instead of betting on future gains. The utility of the tokens is not prominent, so selling becomes a wise move.

Today, the community circulated the following picture about the launch time of Solana ecosystem tokens on the SOL price curve. From November last year to March this year, the price of SOL was in an upward range, so the new coins launched during this period performed better than the new coins launched after March when SOL entered a downward range.

The market volatility and the poor performance of new coins such as PRCL and OMNI have caused the market to disagree on when the next new coins should be launched. Some people expressed the hope that projects such as Kamino and Drift would consider postponing the issuance of upcoming tokens. On April 16, Drift Protocol announced plans to launch the DRIFT token within a few weeks.

"It is wise to postpone the issuance of tokens." Some people in the community said that if it is not launched in the fourth quarter of 2023 or the first quarter of 2024, it is better to wait until the end of the second quarter of 2024 or the end of the third quarter of 2024 before going online.

Crypto KOL Sisyphus teased that "It is no surprise that all teams that missed the best launch window in the previous cycle also missed the best window to launch this cycle." Obviously, timing is an important consideration in the crypto world.

As Arthur Hayes said, a new round of crypto bull market is expected to start from May 1 as the Federal Reserve slows down the pace of balance sheet reduction and the U.S. Treasury uses funds to stimulate the market. Hayes pointed out that the Federal Reserve has "transfused blood" to the banking system in disguise by relaxing bank capital requirements, allowing it to hold more Treasury bonds. The U.S. Treasury has also been issuing more short-term Treasury bonds to absorb trillions of dollars of idle funds in the Federal Reserve Bank's reverse repurchase facility. Both of these measures are conducive to improving market liquidity.

Therefore, it is not that the new currency cannot be bought, but that the timing is wrong and people dare not buy it.

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